# Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/oil-shock-from-iran-war-led-to-drop-in-carbon-pollution-scientists-say/
- Published: 2026-11-10T19:05:11+00:00
- Updated: 2026-11-10T19:23:14+00:00
- Original publisher: PBS NewsHour (publisher lean: Centre)
- Original article: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/oil-shock-from-iran-war-led-to-drop-in-carbon-pollution-scientists-say
- Topics: Climate, Environment, Middle East, Politics, Research, Science, World

## Key points

- Fossil fuel emissions are forecast to dip 0.4% in 2026.
- Scientists link the fall mainly to Iran war oil disruptions.
- Total emissions still rose 1% when land use is included.

## Summary

Global carbon pollution from fossil fuels is expected to fall by 0.4% in 2026, but scientists say the decline is mainly a consequence of energy disruption caused by the Iran war, rather than progress on climate action. The findings suggest the drop may be temporary and underline how the world remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

The Global Carbon Project estimates fossil fuel emissions at 42.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide this year. Oil emissions fell nearly 2% and natural gas emissions 0.3%, while coal emissions rose 0.6%; the war-related closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed up oil and petrol prices. Overall carbon dioxide emissions rose 1% when land-use changes, including deforestation and peat fires, were included. Scientists noted that earlier declines in 2009 and 2020 were followed by emissions returning to previous levels, while experts differed on whether the global peak in emissions is now near.

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.