Phono V Could Reshape Catalog Valuations for Years. Here’s Why Songwriters Should Pay Attention (Guest Column)

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Phono V Could Reshape Catalog Valuations for Years. Here’s Why Songwriters Should Pay Attention (Guest Column)

Billboard · 17 hours ago

The Copyright Royalty Board is holding Phonorecords V (Phono V) proceedings to determine how streaming platforms calculate and pay mechanical royalties to songwriters and publishers in the United States from 2028 through 2032. Whilst the physical and permanent download rate was settled in June, the much larger issue of streaming royalties remains unresolved, with formal submissions due on 5 October and the Board's determination expected by the end of 2027. This is significant because changes to the royalty formula directly affect not just immediate revenue but also expected future revenues, which are the primary driver of music catalog valuations—a critical consideration for songwriters deciding whether to sell their catalogs.

Bundling represents a central issue in the proceedings: after Spotify reclassified subscriptions as bundles to qualify for lower mechanical royalty payments in March 2024, other streaming services followed suit, and the National Music Publishers' Association estimates the practice has cost publishers and songwriters nearly $500 million since 2024. If rates remain unchanged, bundling is projected to cost the industry over $3.1 billion between 2028 and 2032. The urgency is underscored by the recent slowdown in US publishing revenue growth to 3.7% in 2025, down from double-digit growth the previous year, alongside broader concerns that regulatory uncertainty places downward pressure on catalog valuations, forcing songwriters to choose between accepting lower prices or leveraging short-term financing against future earnings.

  • Streaming royalty rates for 2028–2032 being determined; bundling costing industry billions
  • Changes directly impact catalog valuations and songwriters' financial decisions
  • Regulatory uncertainty may depress catalog sale prices before rates confirmed

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