# Poll: Americans don’t trust polls

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/poll-americans-dont-trust-polls/
- Published: 2026-10-30T09:00:00+00:00
- Updated: 2026-11-04T00:31:34+00:00
- Original publisher: Politico (publisher lean: Centre)
- Original article: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/30/poll-americans-dont-trust-polls-01141115
- Topics: Americas, Elections, Politics, World

## Key points

- Only a quarter said political polls correctly estimate votes.
- Scepticism appeared among supporters of both major parties.
- Polls measure opinion at a point in time, while turnout is harder to predict.

## Summary

A survey conducted for Politico by PF Global found that only 25% of Americans thought political polls correctly estimate votes. Published on 30 October, days before the 2026 midterm elections, the findings showed scepticism across party lines: about two in five Americans said polls tended to underestimate one party or the other. Among people who voted for Donald Trump in 2024, roughly two in five thought polls underestimated Republicans; just under a third of Kamala Harris voters thought they underestimated Democrats.

The survey also found limited confidence in polls as election forecasts. When asked to compare poll-based forecasts with prediction markets, 18% trusted the polls more, 12% trusted the markets more and about a third trusted neither. One in five respondents said they had answered a question about how they would vote differently from how they eventually voted. Polling specialists say surveys are snapshots of opinion when they are taken, while predicting who will turn out remains difficult. The findings describe public confidence in polling; they do not establish how accurate the final midterm polls were.

## Coverage

- [Politico: Poll: Americans don’t trust polls](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/30/poll-americans-dont-trust-polls-01141115)
- [Pew Research Center: The 2026 Midterms Will Be Uniquely Difficult for Polls](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/10/29/the-2026-midterms-will-be-uniquely-difficult-for-polls/)

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.