# A small share of skilled traders drives prediction market profits and forecasts

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/prediction-market-bettors-are-the-new-political-pundits-why-are-we-listening-to-them-judith-levine/
- Published: 2026-11-02T11:00:40+00:00
- Updated: 2026-11-02T11:23:49+00:00
- Original publisher: The Guardian (publisher lean: Left)
- Original article: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/nov/02/prediction-markets-voters-elections
- Topics: Business, Elections, Markets, Politics

## Key points

- A small minority of Polymarket traders account for much of its predictive accuracy.
- Most bettors lose while a tiny share captures most profits.
- The markets may shape election expectations without improving voters’ choices.

## Summary

The article argues that prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket present themselves as a democratic alternative to political punditry, but their apparent “wisdom of the crowd” may obscure how much a small group of skilled traders shapes their accuracy. Their election forecasts can influence voters’ expectations without helping them decide how to vote, while the promise of easy winnings risks misleading ordinary users.

The article cites a London Business School and Yale working paper finding that about 3% of Polymarket accounts were persistently skilled, while most bettors performed no better than chance. A Wall Street Journal analysis of 1.6 million accounts found that three-quarters of profits went to 0.1% of them; around 2,000 accounts made nearly half a billion dollars. The article says professional traders use data, algorithms and rapid trading, while casual users supply much of the money and bear most losses.

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.