# Prediction Markets Called the Midterms. Lawmakers Still Call Them Gambling.

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/prediction-markets-called-the-midterms-lawmakers-still-call-them-gambling/
- Published: 2026-11-06T20:00:24+00:00
- Updated: 2026-11-06T20:24:38+00:00
- Original publisher: Reason (publisher lean: Right)
- Original article: https://reason.com/2026/11/06/prediction-markets-called-the-midterms-lawmakers-still-call-them-gambling/
- Topics: Business, Elections, Markets, Politics

## Key points

- Prediction markets forecast the Democrats’ midterm gains with high accuracy.
- Kalshi said its favourite won 479 of 487 races.
- Lawmakers are pushing to restrict election-related trading.

## Summary

Prediction markets correctly signalled a strong Democratic performance in the US midterms, with leading platforms giving the party a high chance of taking both chambers before votes were counted. Their accuracy could bolster their standing as forecasting tools, but the markets’ growing popularity is also drawing scrutiny from lawmakers concerned about gambling and election integrity.

The article says Americans placed nearly $1.9 billion in wagers across more than 7,000 midterm outcomes, while Kalshi recorded $2.5 billion in election trading. Kalshi said its leading forecasts were correct in 479 of 487 races, or 98 per cent. Some lawmakers have proposed banning election-related contracts, citing risks such as insider trading; experts quoted in the article argue markets can complement polls by estimating probabilities rather than measuring voter intentions.

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.