# Prediction markets get Democratic win right, with a few surprises

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/prediction-markets-get-democratic-win-right-with-a-few-surprises/
- Published: 2026-11-04T14:12:50+00:00
- Updated: 2026-11-05T09:54:36+00:00
- Original publisher: CNA (publisher lean: Centre)
- Original article: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/prediction-markets-get-democratic-win-right-few-surprises-6524521
- Topics: Business, Markets, World

## Key points

- Markets anticipated a Democratic sweep but missed some close races.
- Democrats repeatedly outperformed the odds assigned to them.
- Kalshi reported over $2.5 billion in election-market trading.

## Summary

Prediction markets broadly anticipated Democratic victories in the US midterms, including the party taking control of both chambers of Congress, but they underestimated Democrats in several races. The results tested whether markets can turn betting odds into reliable election forecasts and showed that their overall performance was broadly comparable with opinion polls.

Democrats won Senate seats in Texas and Ohio, while several candidates beat market expectations: Annie Andrews defeated a South Carolina opponent who had been given about a 70 per cent chance of winning, and Gina Hinojosa unseated Texas Governor Greg Abbott. Analytics firm BETINT identified 14 known Democratic upsets over candidates favoured the previous week, among more than 400 races with known results. Kalshi reported more than $2.5 billion in election-market trading this cycle, while critics say speculation, limited liquidity and concentrated bets can distort prices.

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.