US intelligence has reportedly warned that Vladimir Putin could test NATO’s resolve within weeks through a limited action against alliance territory, rather than a full-scale invasion. Possible scenarios include an unmarked armed group occupying a small area, a cyberattack or a limited incursion on NATO’s eastern flank; any such action would be significant because it could test the alliance’s collective-defence commitment.

The warning comes amid concern that Moscow may seek to exploit perceived divisions within NATO while the war in Ukraine continues. The report says Russia is unlikely to have the capacity to open a major second front, but officials fear smaller, deniable provocations could pressure NATO members and divert attention from Ukraine.