According to US sources relayed to Polish President Karol Nawrocki's office, Russian leadership is preparing plans for a limited armed incursion across Poland's border. The operation would involve ground forces entering Polish territory alongside air strikes targeting critical infrastructure such as power stations, designed to demonstrate NATO's response capabilities and readiness to defend a member state.

The underlying strategy aims to manufacture an international crisis that pressures Western nations to abandon their support for Ukraine's defence, based on assessments by both American and Polish security officials. Such strikes on Polish infrastructure would compel the country to mobilise air defence systems, creating potential for direct military escalation between NATO and Russian forces.