Vladimir Putin is showing no indication of ending Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with recent developments suggesting a commitment to continued military operations. Russia's tightly controlled parliamentary election in September produced a more pro-Putin State Duma, which the Kremlin is presenting as a popular mandate. This comes as Russia intensifies military strikes against Ukraine whilst simultaneously pursuing what Western officials describe as a "hybrid war" against European nations through cyber-attacks, sabotage, and incursions into European airspace.

Russia's military strategy appears focused on capitalising on Ukraine's shortage of air defence missiles and is planning increased strikes during winter. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reframed Russian operations as defensive, arguing that Russia is targeting Western weapons supplied to Ukraine and that Europe, not Russia, is waging war. Western analysts believe Russia is deliberately escalating tensions with European countries to weaken their commitment to supporting Ukraine militarily and financially. A prominent Russian foreign policy strategist has warned that Russia may feel compelled to escalate further if Western support continues.