# State of the climate: 2026 likely to tie with 2024 as the warmest year on record

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/state-of-the-climate-2026-likely-to-tie-with-2024-as-the-warmest-year-on-record/
- Published: 2026-11-03T13:48:04+00:00
- Updated: 2026-11-03T23:06:13+00:00
- Original publisher: Carbon Brief
- Original article: https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2026-likely-to-tie-with-2024-as-the-warmest-year-on-record
- Topics: Climate, Science

## Key points

- 2026 has a 67% chance of beating 2024’s temperature record.
- August was the warmest on record in all six datasets.
- A strengthening El Niño could make 2027 even hotter.

## Summary

Carbon Brief’s analysis finds 2026 is almost certain to be either the warmest or second-warmest year recorded, as human-caused warming combines with a strengthening El Niño. It estimates a 67% chance that 2026 will surpass 2024’s record, though temperature datasets differ considerably in their assessments.

The first nine months of 2026 ranked second-warmest across six datasets, about 0.06C cooler than the same period in 2024. August was the warmest on record for that month in all six datasets, while September was second-warmest in the five datasets reporting so far. The El Niño measure in the tropical Pacific reached its strongest level since satellite records began in 1981; the analysis projects a 96% chance that 2027 will be the warmest year, at about 1.7C above pre-industrial levels.

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.