Andy Burnham is expected to become prime minister within a fortnight, having promised to reshape Labour's agenda and deliver improvements across the whole of the UK. However, this Guardian analysis argues he will inherit a daunting set of unresolved problems from his predecessor Keir Starmer, spanning welfare, defence, taxation, immigration, justice, foreign relations and the Middle East. How he handles these competing pressures — often caught between a rightwing opposition demanding cuts and restless Labour MPs — will define the early period of his premiership.

On welfare, Burnham will receive the final Timms review into disability benefits amid forecasts that personal independence payments could double by 2030, with ministers aiming to curb growth rather than make fresh savings. He is said to accept the £298bn, four-year defence investment plan as "settled" despite needing an extra £4.7bn at the next budget and a longer-term goal of 3.5% of GDP by 2035. While pledging not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, he has hinted at "movement" on tax, eyeing reformed business rates and a possible capital gains rise; he plans to press ahead with most of Shabana Mahmood's immigration overhaul, including extending indefinite leave to remain from five to 10 years. He has privately signalled scrapping planned limits on jury trials, faces a high-stakes first encounter with Donald Trump — possibly at November's G20 in Miami — and has already apologised for Labour's handling of Gaza.