The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is on track to be much quieter than usual, offering relief to coastal communities in the United States, but forecasters warn this comes at a cost elsewhere. So far only two mild tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, have formed, and accumulated cyclone energy — a measure of overall storm intensity and duration — is running at less than 30% of typical levels for this point in the season. The main driver is a rapidly strengthening El Niño in the Pacific, which increases wind shear across the Atlantic and suppresses hurricane formation.

Leading forecaster Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University has repeatedly revised his outlook downward, now predicting nine named storms and four hurricanes this season, down from April's forecast of 13 storms and six hurricanes, with cyclone energy expected at around 40% of normal. However, climate scientist Zeke Hausfather notes that this El Niño could become one of the strongest on record, with models suggesting it may peak at 3.6°C, well above the previous record of 2.75°C set in 2015-16, implying significant global weather and climate consequences beyond the hurricane season itself.