Labour’s recent rise in the polls and Reform UK’s decline have fuelled speculation that Prime Minister Andy Burnham could call an early general election. Although the government says no early election is planned, supporters and opposition parties are preparing for the possibility, while experts caution that Labour’s position may be weaker than its recent polling lead suggests.

A YouGov poll projects Labour winning 241 seats, down 162 from its current total, resulting in a hung parliament. The Conservatives are forecast to win 130 seats and Reform 123, while Labour may need support from the Greens or Liberal Democrats; a forthcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election is being viewed as a test of whether progressive voters are returning to Labour.