You’re Thinking About Online Trends All Wrong

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You’re Thinking About Online Trends All Wrong

Wired · 2 hours ago

NYU researcher Ruby Thelot argues that online virality is no longer a reliable guide to whether a cultural trend is meaningful or durable. Social media’s fragmented audiences can make niche phenomena appear widespread, while content is increasingly designed to maximise views rather than offer lasting value; this matters because public discussion, businesses and media may overestimate short-lived online activity.

Thelot links this shift to Goodhart’s law: once virality became a goal, it ceased to measure genuine cultural adoption. He cites past hype around NFTs and Clubhouse, and says his review of roughly 1,000 Instagram and TikTok videos with more than one million views found about 25 per cent were negative, suggesting claims of widespread “dating burnout” or heteropessimism may be overstated. His forthcoming book, *In Defense of Being-On-Line*, also examines what interest in prediction markets may reveal about online culture.

  • Virality can be engineered without becoming lasting culture.
  • Fragmented platforms exaggerate the apparent scale of trends.
  • Dating pessimism online may be less widespread than reported.

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