European gas prices have surged to a four-month high as an escalating conflict between the US and Iran fuels fears of energy supply shortages this winter. The Dutch gas benchmark briefly topped €60 per megawatt hour on Monday after the US widened its aerial campaign and Iran struck back at Bahrain and Kuwait, with analysts warning that disruption to Qatari LNG exports during the critical summer restocking period is putting pressure on Europe's ability to fill storage cheaply.

Analysts at ICIS said European gas storage is currently less than 54% full, against 64% at the same point last year, and warned a cold start to winter could force costly state intervention to secure supplies. Just 26 LNG cargoes have left the Gulf since the conflict began on 28 February, far below the usual 90 to 100 a month, prompting ICIS to cut its global LNG supply forecast for the year from 441m to 431m tonnes; Europe may need to pay €54-€60 per MWh to restock this autumn. Oil markets also reacted, with Brent crude briefly breaching $90 a barrel before easing after Iran said talks with the US were continuing.