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Pay up or not? Ransomware surge has victims facing tough choices
Ransomware attacks are surging and becoming more sophisticated, forcing an increasing number of victims into a difficult choice between paying hackers or refusing and risking permanent data loss. Nearly half of targeted companies now pay a ransom, according to 2025 research from Sophos, and the UK government is advancing plans to ban public sector bodies and critical national infrastructure organisations, including the NHS, councils and schools, from making such payments. The trend matters because it pits efforts to starve criminal networks of funding against the practical reality that some victims, particularly those running essential services, may have no viable way to recover their data without paying.
Experts point to AI-powered hacking tools such as WormGPT, FraudGPT and BruteForceAI as a key driver, with Fortinet reporting a 389% year-on-year rise in confirmed ransomware victims in 2025, from around 1,600 to 7,831 globally. Security specialists remain divided on payment bans: some, like SentinelOne's Jim Walter, argue paying only emboldens attackers and rarely guarantees safe data recovery, while others, such as DriveSavers' Andy Maus, warn that blanket bans can cause more harm when recovery isn't feasible, noting that existing state-level bans in North Carolina and Florida have not visibly deterred criminal activity. Risk Ledger's Haydn Brooks cautioned that restricting public sector payouts could push criminals towards less-regulated private firms and drive up cyber insurance premiums.
In short
- Ransomware attacks rose 389% year-on-year in 2025, fuelled by AI hacking tools.
- UK plans to ban public bodies and NHS from paying ransoms.
- Experts split: bans may deter crime or worsen outcomes when recovery isn't possible.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The strongest case here recognises that ransomware victims, particularly those running essential services like hospitals, face an impossible situation: refuse to pay and risk permanent data loss that could harm public safety, or pay and keep critical systems operational. Empirical evidence suggests bans haven't deterred criminals—state-level restrictions in North Carolina and Florida showed no measurable reduction in attacks—so the practical effect of mandating refusal may simply be to harm victims without achieving the stated goal. For organisations without adequate backup systems or recovery options, paying a ransom might be the least damaging choice available, especially when the alternative is permanent loss of data essential to serving vulnerable populations.
The case against
The strongest case here emphasises that every ransom payment funds criminal enterprises, subsidises future attacks, and effectively rewards extortion. Security professionals argue that paying rarely guarantees data recovery, with many victims receiving corrupted files or incomplete data, and the historical pattern shows that organisations that refuse to pay are not systematically targeted more heavily than those that do. By maintaining a principled stance against payments, governments and critical institutions can erode the financial incentive structure that makes ransomware attacks lucrative, whilst investing instead in resilient infrastructure, robust backups, and cyber defences that eliminate the supposed necessity of paying at all.
Explained simply
Ransomware is a type of cyberattack where hackers lock a company's data and demand money to release it. Attacks of this kind have surged in recent years, leaving victims with a difficult choice: pay the criminals to restore their systems, or refuse and risk losing their data permanently.
The UK government is considering a ban on paying ransoms, believing that such payments only fund criminal groups and encourage further attacks. However, experts are divided on whether this approach works, with some warning that organisations running essential services like hospitals may have no other way to recover, and that bans could inadvertently push criminals towards easier targets or raise insurance costs.
The sharp rise in ransomware reflects advances in artificial intelligence tools that make hacking faster and easier for criminals. This combination creates a genuine policy challenge: how to discourage criminal funding whilst acknowledging that some victims cannot realistically recover their systems any other way.
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