A new analysis suggests the 2026 El Niño could become the strongest since reliable records began, raising the risk of severe weather and lasting economic disruption worldwide. Its significance lies in how unusually warm Pacific waters can alter global weather patterns and add to human-driven climate warming.

Using 667 simulations from 14 climate models, the analysis projects Niño 3.4 temperatures could peak 3.6°C above normal, about 0.8°C higher than the 2015–16 record. It estimates global temperatures could reach as much as 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels in 2027, while Carbon Brief puts the chance of a 2026 annual heat record at 35%, up from 19% in April. Effects may already be emerging, including lower eastern Pacific fish catches and Peru’s seasonal anchovy fishing ban.