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Burnham’s first big test comes in his beloved Manchester as voters prepare to elect his replacement
Andy Burnham faces his first major electoral test as prime minister when Greater Manchester voters choose his successor as mayor, a role he held from 2017 until returning to Parliament in June. The contest matters because it will test Labour’s strength in a region closely associated with Burnham’s popularity, while exposing differences between prosperous central Manchester and more socially conservative, post-industrial outer boroughs.
Burnham won 63 per cent in 2017 and was re-elected overwhelmingly in 2021 and 2024, gaining prominence during Covid through his opposition to the government’s handling of regional restrictions. Greater Manchester’s economy has grown by 3.1 per cent annually over the past decade, though much of that growth has been concentrated in the city; turnout was only 32 per cent in 2024. Labour remains dominant across most councils, but Reform made substantial gains in recent local elections and the Greens also advanced in Manchester, amid Labour’s wider loss of 1,500 English council seats and control of 30 authorities.
In short
- Burnham’s successor election tests Labour’s northern support.
- Manchester’s growth has not been shared evenly.
- Reform and Greens have recently gained ground.
Explained simply
Andy Burnham, now prime minister, previously served as mayor of Greater Manchester from 2017 until returning to Parliament in June. Greater Manchester voters must now elect his successor, which matters because the region has been strongly associated with Burnham's political popularity and electoral success. His departure therefore raises questions about Labour's ability to maintain its support in this area.
The region presents significant contrasts that will shape the incoming mayor's work. Central Manchester has experienced strong economic growth, though prosperity is concentrated there whilst outer boroughs remain more post-industrial in character with different economic challenges. These geographical differences often align with different political priorities across the region.
Greater Manchester has been a Labour stronghold for years, but recent elections indicate shifting political dynamics. The Reform party has made substantial gains in local elections, and the Greens have also advanced in Manchester. This suggests the new mayor will face political challenges that Burnham did not.
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