‘Burnham bounce’ risks deflating unless focus remains on struggling households | Richard Partington
UK consumer confidence rose at its fastest monthly pace in almost three years in June, a shift data firm GfK partly attributes to Andy Burnham's return to Westminster politics, alongside sunshine and England's World Cup run. The improvement matters because household spending makes up around 60% of the UK economy, so any lift in sentiment could help high streets, service providers and builders. However, columnist Richard Partington cautions this "Burnham bounce" may not last unless policy keeps focusing on struggling households, given deep and widening inequalities in how different groups experience the economy.
Burnham's measures include a temporary VAT cut on electricity bills in Great Britain from October, a £2 cap on bus fares across England, and a 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs and live music venues, alongside inflation falling to 2.6%. Yet GfK data shows over-65s are gloomier than 16- to 29-year-olds despite record youth unemployment, and official figures reveal the richest fifth of households increased weekly spending twice as fast as the poorest fifth (up £98.10, or 10%, to £1,083.60 versus £18.10, or 5%, to £407.30) in the year to March 2025, with overall prices up more than a quarter since the 2021 cost of living crisis began.
- Consumer confidence jumped after Burnham's return, aided by weather and football
- Household spending drives 60% of UK economy, so sentiment matters
- Richest households' spending grew twice as fast as poorest's
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