Iran’s missile strike on a US base in Jordan may reflect a calculation that a contained conflict offers Tehran more leverage than a ceasefire. The article argues that a ceasefire could leave Iran facing the same sanctions, naval blockade and economic isolation, whereas limited disruption to key shipping routes keeps international attention on Iranian demands.

Neither the US nor Iran appears to want a full-scale war: Washington is wary of wider regional instability and higher energy prices, while Iran has vulnerable infrastructure and a sanctions-hit economy. Tehran may seek influence over future shipping arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz, while conflict may also ease immediate domestic political pressure amid high inflation, unemployment and public dissatisfaction.