China’s EV Market Is Booming. There’s Just One Problem
China’s rapid expansion of electric vehicle sales is creating a growing challenge: large numbers of ageing batteries now need to be safely reused or recycled. Although the country has developed substantial official recycling capacity, much of the waste stream still goes to uncertified operators, raising risks of pollution, fires and unsafe disposal.
Sales of battery-powered vehicles rose from around 1 million in 2018 to more than 16 million in 2025, while batteries typically last about eight years. China recorded 400,000 tonnes of EV battery waste last year; researchers project this could reach 1.69 million tonnes in 2030 and 22.39 million tonnes by 2040. Certified recyclers had capacity for 623,000 tonnes in 2023 but processed only about a quarter of retired batteries, and reports suggest many officially approved firms are no longer operating.
In short
- China faces a surge in retired EV batteries.
- Informal recycling creates pollution and safety risks.
- Official capacity exists but is underused.
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The case for
China's rapid EV expansion is essential for global climate mitigation, and the development of substantial recycling capacity demonstrates serious infrastructure progress. Market incentives, particularly the material value in recovered battery components, will naturally drive greater utilisation of certified processors without the economic costs and implementation challenges of stringent enforcement regimes. Rather than impose regulations that could dampen EV adoption rates, policymakers should rely on commercial forces to align battery flows with recycling capacity as the industry matures, prioritising the overriding climate imperative.
The case against
Uncertified recyclers are actively creating documented environmental contamination and fire risks to communities today, making this far more than a temporary growing pain requiring patience. The scale of projected waste—reaching 22.39 million tonnes by 2040—demands immediate, rigorous enforcement, penalties and monitoring to ensure batteries reach certified processors, treating environmental protection as equally important as vehicle sales growth. Waiting for market mechanisms to eventually solve the problem leaves vulnerable populations bearing unacceptable health and environmental costs whilst regulators defer necessary action.
Explained simply
Electric vehicles run on large rechargeable batteries, which gradually lose capacity and usually need replacing after several years. As China’s EV sales have grown, more old batteries are reaching the point where they must be reused or taken apart.
China has licensed companies to recover materials such as lithium and process batteries safely, but much of the discarded stock still goes to unapproved operators. That can increase the risk of pollution, fires and unsafe disposal.
The challenge matters because battery waste is expected to rise sharply as earlier generations of EVs age. Whether the formal recycling system can handle that growth affects public safety and how much valuable material can be recovered.