ROBERT HARDMAN: Move over Binface… this obscure election could be the one to supercharge a Tory revival – and stop the loony-Left Greens taking over crime-hit south London
A by-election in the Trinity ward of Wandsworth, south London, this Thursday could hand the Conservatives outright control of the council for the first time since it fell to Labour in 2022. Although a minor contest by national standards, the result is being watched closely as a test of whether Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives can keep making gains in a traditionally Labour-dominated capital, following recent Tory successes in Westminster and May's Wandsworth local elections.
The seat became vacant after a Labour councillor resigned, and roughly 8,000 voters will decide the outcome. In May's local elections, the Conservatives narrowly failed to win Wandsworth outright, taking 29 seats to Labour's 28 and governing only with the support of the borough's one independent councillor; a win for Labour's Shirin Georgiani would preserve this fragile status quo, while a Tory victory would give them a clear majority. The article contrasts Wandsworth's rightward drift with neighbouring Lambeth, now run by the Greens, which has refused to cooperate with Home Office immigration enforcement and said it will disregard the Supreme Court's ruling on sex-based rights in single-sex spaces, alongside a rise in serious violent crime in the Clapham area, including recent fatal stabbings and a shooting.
- Wandsworth by-election Thursday could give Tories full council control
- Seen as a test of Kemi Badenoch's support in London
- Contrasts with neighbouring Green-run Lambeth's policies and rising crime
New here? Start with this
Wandsworth council in south London was until 2022 the flagship Conservative-run authority once championed by Margaret Thatcher, before Labour narrowly took control that year. In May's local elections the Tories nearly won it back, ending up one seat short of Labour and only able to run the borough with the backing of a single independent councillor. A knife-edge by-election in the Trinity ward, triggered by a Labour councillor's resignation, will now decide whether that finely balanced arrangement holds or tips fully to the Conservatives.
The result matters beyond Wandsworth as a gauge of whether Kemi Badenoch's Conservative Party, under pressure nationally, can still make headway in London, a city that has generally leaned towards Labour and other parties in recent years. It follows other recent Tory results in the capital, including in Westminster.
The story also sets Wandsworth against neighbouring Lambeth, which is controlled by the Green Party and has taken distinct positions on issues such as cooperation with immigration enforcement and a recent Supreme Court ruling on sex-based rights, while also dealing with a rise in violent crime in parts of the borough. This contrast forms the backdrop against which the Trinity ward result is being read.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Supporters of a Conservative-led Wandsworth argue that local government should prioritise practical, uncontroversial competence: keeping council tax low, streets clean and safe, and administration efficient, as the borough was long known for under previous Tory control. They contend that residents in neighbouring Lambeth have suffered from councils prioritising ideological positions, such as declining to cooperate with Home Office immigration enforcement or disregarding a Supreme Court ruling on single-sex spaces, over consistent policing and public safety, and that a clear Tory majority in Wandsworth would let the council govern decisively rather than relying on a single independent's support to pass any measure.
The case against
Supporters of Labour or the Greens would argue that councils have a legitimate mandate to reflect the values and priorities of their diverse local populations, including protecting vulnerable migrant residents from what they see as harsh enforcement practices and defending inclusive policies for transgender people even where these sit in tension with a narrow legal ruling. They would say that framing a minor council by-election as a battle against a 'loony-Left' takeover misrepresents mainstream progressive local politics, and that rising violent crime reflects wider policing and funding pressures affecting all London boroughs regardless of which party runs the local council, rather than being a consequence of any particular administration's ideology.