Wiped out: US faces surging toilet paper prices amid trade war with Canada
The United States and Canada are locking into a full-blown trade war after negotiations broke down last weekend, with Canadian prime minister Mark Carney vowing to match US tariffs "dollar for dollar" and imposing 25-50% duties on nearly 900 American goods from 8 September. Toilet paper and tissue products are among the hardest hit, as Canada threatens matching tariffs in retaliation for a 50% US levy, despite American manufacturers relying heavily on Canadian lumber for raw materials. This matters because it threatens decades of close economic ties between the two countries and could push up everyday costs for consumers on both sides of the border.
Canada supplied $328m worth of toilet paper to the US in 2024, by far its largest source, with retailers such as Costco heavily reliant on Canadian supply; Procter & Gamble, maker of Charmin, has already warned tariffs would push up prices. The dispute extends well beyond paper goods: the US has imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian dairy and liquor (hitting brands like Crown Royal), while Canada has hit back with 50% tariffs on American dairy, 25% on cheese, seafood and cars, and several provinces have banned American alcohol. Despite the escalating measures, and Donald Trump threatening to double car tariffs to 50% if no deal is reached by January 2027, US trade representative Jamieson Greer insists the dispute will not affect American consumers.
- US-Canada trade talks collapsed, triggering tit-for-tat tariffs from 8 September
- Toilet paper, dairy, liquor, seafood and cars all face steep new tariffs
- Officials downplay impact, but consumer prices are expected to rise
New here? Start with this
The United States and Canada are close trading partners, and goods cross their shared border in both directions. Toilet paper is one example: US shops import large amounts from Canada, while American paper makers also depend on Canadian lumber to produce their own products.
Tariffs are taxes on imported goods. Governments may use them to make foreign products more expensive or to respond to another country’s trade measures; businesses can pass some of those costs on to shoppers. The dispute covers many goods beyond paper, including food, drink and cars, so it could affect prices and supply on both sides of the border.
The two countries’ economies are closely connected, with companies and consumers relying on cross-border trade. Changes to that trade can therefore have effects beyond the products directly targeted by tariffs.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Supporters of the tariffs argue they are justified measures to protect American economic interests and secure better trading terms with Canada. They contend that tariffs provide necessary leverage to correct trade imbalances and protect domestic manufacturing capacity and jobs. From this perspective, the short-term consumer price increases are an acceptable cost for establishing more favourable long-term economic relationships and ensuring the US is not disadvantaged by preferential access granted to trading partners.
The case against
Critics of the tariffs contend that they ultimately harm American consumers through higher everyday costs, whilst disrupting the deeply integrated North American supply chains that have developed over decades. They argue that retaliatory measures create a lose-lose scenario where American manufacturers themselves suffer when they rely on Canadian inputs like lumber, making the tariffs economically counterproductive. From this perspective, trade wars damage both countries' prosperity without delivering the promised consumer benefits when supply chains are so interdependent.