Vote Restore, get Greens: Split in Right vote sees Zack Polanski’s leftwing party pip Reform to first council seat
The Green Party won a Dover, Kent, council by-election by 34 votes over Reform UK, with Restore Britain’s candidate taking nearly 300 votes. The result highlights how a divided right-of-centre vote can affect closely contested local elections, while giving the Greens a seat in an area strongly associated with debate over Channel crossings.
Green candidate Ingrid Dodd defeated Reform’s James Defriend, while the Conservatives—longstanding holders of the seat—finished third. Restore Britain’s Jeremy Hermer came fifth and said the party had exceeded its Manchester mayoral-election vote share of 8.7%; its leader, Rupert Lowe, said it intended to contest further elections. In a separate Wandsworth by-election, Labour retained Trinity ward by 127 votes, with 1,558 votes to the Conservatives’ 1,431.
- Greens won Dover by 34 votes over Reform UK.
- Restore Britain’s vote may have influenced the close result.
- Labour retained a Wandsworth council seat.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The result reasonably suggests that fragmentation on the right can be decisive under first-past-the-post: Restore Britain’s nearly 300 votes exceeded the Green margin over Reform, while the Conservatives also retained a substantial share. Advocates of this reading would argue that voters seeking tougher approaches to migration, sovereignty or political change may weaken their influence when similar parties compete separately. They see the by-election as a practical warning that electoral strategy and cooperation matter in close contests.
The case against
It is not safe to assume that Restore Britain or Conservative voters would otherwise have backed Reform, because parties can appeal to distinct priorities, local candidates and different kinds of dissatisfaction. A single local by-election, shaped by turnout and ward-specific campaigning, cannot establish a broader national pattern or reduce voters to a single right-of-centre bloc. Advocates of this view would say the Green victory should be understood first as a positive choice for its candidate and local platform, rather than merely as the arithmetic consequence of a split vote.