True cost of Brexit on UK trade revealed as calls to rejoin single market grow
Logistics UK estimates that Brexit is costing the UK £11.7bn annually in lost exports compared with 2019, intensifying calls for closer trading arrangements with the EU. The findings matter because supporters of greater alignment argue that reduced trade barriers could support business growth, investment and productivity.
The trade association said goods-export tonnage has fallen 20.7 per cent since the 2016 referendum, including a 15.9 per cent fall to the EU and a 37.2 per cent fall to other markets. A European Movement UK survey found 72.8 per cent of businesses reported a negative effect from Brexit, while 98.2 per cent backed restored single-market access; HMRC previously estimated EU import and export declarations created a £1.8bn administrative burden in 2022.
- Logistics UK estimates £11.7bn in annual lost exports.
- Export volumes have fallen since the Brexit referendum.
- Business groups cite paperwork and border friction.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The reported export losses and added customs paperwork suggest that the UK’s current trading arrangements are imposing significant costs on businesses. Advocates of closer alignment argue that reducing barriers, potentially through restored single-market access, could improve trade, investment and productivity, and that strong business support for access deserves serious weight.
The case against
The figures do not by themselves establish that Brexit caused all the reported decline: exports also fell to non-EU markets, and the comparison with 2019 cannot isolate the effects of other economic changes. Those cautious about rejoining the single market may argue that closer alignment would constrain the UK’s freedom to set its own rules, so any trade gains should be weighed against the value of regulatory and policy autonomy.