New polling from RealClearPolitics shows Republican candidates trailing Democrats in eight key Senate battlegrounds, fuelling concern that President Donald Trump's party could face a heavy defeat in November's midterm elections. Republicans already faced an uphill fight to retain the House due to the historical disadvantage of holding the White House during a first-term midterm, and the latest figures suggest the Senate is now also at risk, even though Trump retains strong sway over the party through his endorsement record.

Republicans currently trail Democrats by 8 points in North Carolina, 7.5 in Georgia, 2.6 in Ohio, 2.3 in Maine, 2 in Alaska, 2 in New Hampshire, 1.9 in Texas and 1.8 in Michigan, though only the Georgia and North Carolina gaps exceed the typical margin of error. Trump has endorsed 270 candidates this cycle, with 261 winning their primaries (96.7%), though several high-profile picks have lost, including Cory Mills, Catalina Lauf and Megan Degenfelder. Analysts note that Senate polling has historically overstated Democratic margins by an average of 3.7 points, and Republicans argue public surveys may again be underestimating their support. Commentators also point to Trump's absence from the ballot and growing discontent among Midwest farmers as factors that could dampen Republican turnout.