Iran ignores Trump threats of escalating the war and carries out attacks on US allies across the Gulf
Developed over time first seen 2 months ago
Iran defied threats from US President Donald Trump to escalate the conflict, carrying out a fresh wave of strikes against American allies and bases across the Gulf as the seventh-month war reignited after a month-long lull. Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and the UAE all reported intercepting Iranian drones or missiles aimed at US military installations, while two oil tankers were disabled after striking sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The renewed fighting has driven Brent crude above $95 a barrel, up more than 30 per cent since the war began, and is creating political difficulties for Trump's Republican party ahead of November's midterm elections.
The exchanges followed a US strike on a wedding in southern Iran that reportedly killed at least five people, including a child, and wounded 68 others, prompting Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to brand Washington "the Great Satan"; US Central Command said it does not target civilians. Iranian forces said they struck radar systems and US positions at the Al Dhafra and Al Minhad bases in the UAE, Bahrain's Sheikh Isa Airbase, and US forces in Kuwait, Jordan and Erbil, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards said four of their aerospace personnel were killed in a US strike on Kermanshah province. The tit-for-tat came after the US had hit Iranian rocket launchers in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran previously using the month-long pause to face mounting economic pressure, including soaring inflation and a collapsing currency, as Washington sought concessions to fully reopen the strait to shipping.
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In short
- Iran struck US allies across the Gulf despite Trump's escalation threats
- US wedding strike killed five, Iran's negotiator called US "the Great Satan"
- Oil prices surged over 30% as war entered its seventh month
How this story developed
- 2 months ago Iran's Revolutionary Guards have widened their retaliatory strikes across the Gulf, targeting US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Iraq's Kurdistan region, while two oil tankers were disabled after hitting sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2 months ago Iran launched fresh missile and drone attacks on US allies across the Gulf on Wednesday, defying warnings from President Donald Trump against escalating the seven-month conflict.
- 2 months ago Iran defied threats from US President Donald Trump to escalate the conflict, carrying out a fresh wave of strikes against American allies and bases across the Gulf as the seventh-month war reignited after a month-long lull.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Those sympathetic to Iran's response argue that a state struck by an attack that killed civilians, including a child, at a wedding has both a moral and a sovereign right to respond, especially given Washington's denial that the wedding was targeted, which many Iranians view as evasive rather than reassuring. From this perspective, striking military bases used by an adversary's allies is a proportionate, if serious, act of retaliation aimed at deterrence rather than indiscriminate aggression, and restraint in the face of civilian deaths would be read as weakness inviting further strikes. Advocates of this view also note that Iran has confined its attacks to military and shipping targets rather than civilian population centres, which they see as evidence of calibrated rather than reckless escalation.
The case against
Critics of Iran's actions argue that widening strikes to bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Iraqi Kurdistan, alongside mining tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, draws multiple uninvolved states and the global economy into a conflict that began as a bilateral dispute, making it reckless regardless of the original grievance. They contend that disabling commercial vessels and pushing oil prices over $95 a barrel imposes costs on countries and ordinary people with no stake in the dispute, undermining the principle that retaliation should be targeted and proportionate rather than diffuse. This view also holds that responding to a disputed single incident with a broadened regional campaign forecloses diplomatic off-ramps and raises the risk of a wider war that serves no one's genuine interests, however justified the initial grievance may feel.
Explained simply
Iran's confrontation with the United States began earlier this year and has now run for around seven months, drawing in several Gulf states that host American military bases, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Iraq. Iran's Revolutionary Guards, the country's most powerful military force, have been carrying out strikes on these bases in what they describe as retaliation for US action against Iran, while the two sides also remain in indirect negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme, led on Iran's side by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
The conflict matters well beyond the region because the Gulf sits on major oil shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage through which a large share of the world's oil passes. Any damage to tankers or disruption to shipping there tends to push up global oil prices, which affects fuel costs and inflation far from the Middle East. President Trump has been trying to manage the crisis diplomatically while facing domestic pressure ahead of the November midterm elections, in which foreign policy setbacks can become a political liability.
The dispute has increasingly drawn in third countries such as the United Arab Emirates, whose bases and airspace have also come under attack, and has produced disputed claims on both sides about casualties and who is responsible for specific strikes, which neither government fully agrees on.
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