UN warns of ‘supersized’ El Nino as countries prepare for impact
The United Nations has warned that the world is entering a "danger zone of extreme weather" as an unusually powerful El Niño begins to take hold, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres describing the phenomenon as being "supersized" before our eyes. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says this El Niño could become the strongest in over 70 years and may influence global weather patterns until at least February 2027, disrupting rainfall, intensifying storms and adding to heat already driven by human-induced climate change. Governments and scientists are stepping up early warning systems and pre-emptive measures to limit deaths, displacement and environmental harm as the event unfolds.
Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have risen sharply, with some readings over 2C above average and forecasts suggesting they could approach 4C above average, which would make this the strongest El Niño since at least 1950. Below the ocean surface, temperatures are more than 8C above average in places, and above-normal warmth is also expected in the Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic and around Australia, where marine heatwaves are already a growing concern for fisheries and coral reefs. The WMO expects drier conditions across South East Asia, Central America and northern South America in the coming months, raising the risk of droughts and wildfires, while other regions face heightened flooding and typhoon risks.
- UN warns El Niño is "supersized," possibly the strongest since 1950
- Effects could last until February 2027, worsening droughts, floods and storms
- Governments boosting early warning systems to protect vulnerable communities
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Sea temperatures in the Pacific and other oceans naturally swing between warmer and cooler phases, and El Niño is the name given to the warm phase of this cycle. When it occurs, it can shift rainfall and storm patterns around the world, sometimes bringing drought to one region and heavier rain or storms to another. This one is being described as unusually strong, with the potential to affect weather globally into 2027.
The event is being tracked by the World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations' weather and climate agency, alongside national weather services and scientists who monitor ocean temperatures to forecast its likely effects. It matters because El Niño can combine with the general warming caused by human activity, potentially making extreme heat, storms, floods and droughts more intense than they would otherwise be, with knock-on effects for food supplies, water resources and infrastructure in many countries.
Because El Niño's effects are felt unevenly across the globe, governments and aid organisations use forecasts like this one to try to prepare, for example by strengthening early warning systems or planning for possible disruption to farming, water supplies and disaster response.