SUE REID: Germany in shock as hard-Right party stands on the brink of power
Developed over time first seen 2 months ago
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has finished the Saxony-Anhalt state election as the clear leading party, according to an exit poll giving it 44.5 per cent of the vote, putting it on course to control a regional parliament for the first time since the Nazi era. The result marks a watershed for German politics, delivering a severe blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), whose support in the eastern state collapsed from 36 per cent four years ago to just 18 per cent, and intensifying questions over his leadership nationally.
AfD's regional leader, 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, hailed the outcome as historic, telling supporters the momentum built in Saxony-Anhalt was "sweeping across all of Germany" and could not be stopped. The party, which campaigns on deporting illegal migrants, closing the border and reversing wind-farm expansion, drew strength from lingering nostalgia for communist East Germany and resentment over the enduring east-west wealth gap. Merz is expected to respond by cutting state funding to Saxony-Anhalt and maintaining a "firewall" with Left-wing parties to bar AfD politicians from sensitive intelligence briefings over unproven Russian-links allegations, while thousands rallied against the party in Magdeburg and analysts warned his already record-low approval ratings, linked to unresolved migration pressures since 2015, would fuel louder calls for new CDU leadership.
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In short
- AfD wins 44.5% in Saxony-Anhalt exit poll, a historic hard-Right breakthrough
- CDU support collapses from 36% to 18%, deepening Merz's leadership crisis
- Merz expected to cut funding and maintain political "firewall" against AfD
How this story developed
- 2 months ago Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz is expected to respond to the Alternative for Germany's (AfD) projected win in Saxony-Anhalt by cutting state funding and building a political "firewall", in alliance with Left-wing parties, to exclude AfD politicians from sensitive intelligence briefings over unproven allegations of Russian links.
- 2 months ago The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has finished the Saxony-Anhalt state election as the clear leading party, according to an exit poll giving it 44.5 per cent of the vote, putting it on course to control a regional parliament for the first time since the Nazi era.
- 2 months ago An exit poll from Sunday's regional election in Saxony-Anhalt suggests the hard-Right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won 44.5 per cent of the vote, putting it on course to lead a German state parliament for the first time since the Nazi era.
Full account
Germany's political establishment was jolted on Sunday night after an exit poll suggested the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) had won the largest share of the vote in a regional election in Saxony-Anhalt, putting the party within reach of leading a state government for the first time since the fall of the Nazi regime eighty years ago. One projection put AfD support at around 44.5 per cent, a dramatic surge that would eclipse the governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU), whose vote share was reported to have collapsed from roughly 36 per cent at the last election to somewhere near 18 per cent. Even so, it remained unclear well after polling closed whether AfD had secured the outright majority it needed to govern alone, since mainstream parties have so far maintained a so-called 'firewall' of refusing to enter coalition with it.
AfD's candidate for the state, 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, hailed the result as historic, telling supporters that the party had already changed the course of German politics regardless of the final outcome, and suggesting the momentum built in Saxony-Anhalt was spreading nationwide. He also used the campaign to attack Chancellor Friedrich Merz directly, reportedly telling public broadcaster ARD that every day Merz remained in office was 'one too many'. The party's platform in the state centres on a hardline anti-migration agenda, including mass deportations of people in the country illegally, tighter border controls, and withdrawing the region from aspects of the public broadcasting system it accuses of bias. Other reported pledges include ending compulsory school attendance, rewriting history curricula seen as overly focused on the Nazi era, banning LGBTQ symbols in schools, and halting new wind farm construction. Germany's domestic intelligence service has classified AfD's branch in Saxony-Anhalt, along with several others, as a confirmed right-wing extremist organisation, citing among other things its rhetoric towards migrants from Muslim-majority countries.
The result represents a severe blow to Merz and the CDU, which has governed Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years, and comes as his own approval ratings are said to have fallen to the lowest recorded for any post-war German chancellor, largely over frustration at his government's handling of immigration and a sluggish economy. CDU officials have insisted they will not work with AfD in any coalition; the party's general secretary was quoted describing AfD as right-wing extremist, hostile to the euro, and too closely aligned with Russia. Merz is expected to face intensified pressure from within his own party if AfD's strong showing is confirmed, with one political scientist suggesting criticism of his leadership would become impossible to ignore. The prospect of a hard-right administration in the state also drew thousands of protesters onto the streets of the regional capital, Magdeburg, on the eve of the vote, carrying banners rejecting the far right.
AfD's support in Saxony-Anhalt draws heavily on the former communist east's lingering economic disparities with the west and a degree of nostalgia for the pre-unification era, decades after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989. The party is already the largest opposition force in Germany's national parliament and performs strongest in the less prosperous eastern states. Should it go on to lead a state government, it would be an unprecedented moment in post-war German politics, where unlike in several neighbouring European countries, no far-right or right-wing populist party has previously governed at national, state or major city level. Final, certified results were expected within hours, with both the scale of AfD's victory and the make-up of any resulting government still to be confirmed.
Where outlets differ
From the full account, which is AI-written from the sources:
The Mail account (Sue Reid) presents the AfD win as effectively secured, citing a precise 44.5% exit-poll figure and a CDU collapse from 36% to 18%, and frames Merz as already facing a 'firewall' response including intelligence-briefing exclusions over unproven Russia links; it also details more specific AfD policy pledges (banning rainbow flags, halting wind farms, rewriting history textbooks, ending compulsory schooling) and describes the Magdeburg protest banners directly.
The Fox News-style report is more cautious, repeatedly stressing that it was 'not immediately clear' whether AfD would achieve the absolute majority needed to govern alone, and gives more space to direct CDU pushback, quoting general secretary Franziska Hoppermann calling AfD extremist and hostile to the euro and describing its Russia ties as fact rather than alleged.
Only Source 2 notes that Germany's domestic intelligence agency has formally classified AfD's Saxony-Anhalt branch as right-wing extremist and explains the term 'remigration'; only Source 1 gives Merz's personal approval-rating context and the historical Berlin Wall/east-west framing in similar depth.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Supporters of engaging with the AfD's surge as a legitimate democratic verdict argue that nearly half of Saxony-Anhalt's voters have real, unaddressed grievances about mass migration, economic stagnation and a persistent east-west wealth gap, and that dismissing their choice as illegitimate only deepens alienation. They contend that excluding elected AfD politicians from funding or intelligence briefings on unproven Russian-link allegations risks looking like the political establishment silencing dissent rather than defeating it with better arguments or policy. On this view, mainstream parties would do better to compete for these voters by taking immigration and regional inequality seriously, trusting that open democratic contest, not exclusion, is the proper way to test the AfD's ideas and, if voters are wrong, to persuade them otherwise.
The case against
Those who favour Merz's firewall and funding curbs argue that Germany's post-war constitutional order was deliberately built to prevent extremist movements from using democratic mechanisms to acquire power, as the Nazi era tragically demonstrated, and that this history places a special responsibility on today's leaders to act early rather than normalise a party many regard as a threat to that order. They point to the AfD's platform, including proposals to close borders, deport migrants and ban pride flags in schools, as evidence the party would undermine the rights of migrants and LGBTQ citizens if empowered, and see keeping such a party from sensitive security access as a prudent safeguard rather than an affront to democracy, particularly while credible questions about foreign influence remain unresolved. For them, defending liberal democratic institutions sometimes requires drawing firm boundaries around parties judged to threaten those very institutions from within.
Explained simply
Germany's 16 states each hold their own regional elections, and these often serve as an early warning sign for the mood of the national electorate. Saxony-Anhalt, in the former East Germany, has become one of the strongholds of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a hard-Right party that campaigns on tougher immigration controls and has been growing steadily in support since it was founded in 2013.
Friedrich Merz became German Chancellor in 2025 leading the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), a mainstream centre-Right party. Germany's other main parties have long operated an informal "firewall", refusing to work with the AfD in coalition, partly because parts of the party have been placed under surveillance by Germany's domestic intelligence service over concerns about extremism.
The debate over immigration in Germany dates back to 2015, when then-Chancellor Angela Merkel allowed large numbers of migrants, many fleeing the Syrian civil war, to enter the country. That decision remains politically divisive a decade on, and support for the AfD has been strongest in eastern regions that also carry distinct social and economic legacies from the Communist era before German reunification in 1990.
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