Sweden goes to the polls on Sunday in an election that will decide whether Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson secures a second term or the centre-left, led by former PM Magdalena Andersson, returns to power. A notable feature this time is that the hard-right, anti-immigration Sweden Democrats could win Cabinet posts for the first time if Kristersson's right-wing bloc is re-elected, marking a significant shift for a party with roots in far-right extremist groups. The vote matters beyond Sweden's borders as a test of how far populist right-wing gains seen elsewhere in Europe, including a recent far-right win in a German state election, are taking hold in Scandinavia.

More than eight million of Sweden's roughly 10.6 million people are eligible to vote for the 349-seat Riksdag, with parties needing at least 4% support to win seats. Kristersson's three-party coalition has governed since 2022 with outside backing from the Sweden Democrats, who took 20.5% of the vote at the last election, and he has said the party could now join government while he remains prime minister. Analysts describe the campaign as fragmented, dominated less by policy issues such as healthcare than by questions over which bloc can form a majority, with the Social Democrats' cautious campaigning possibly costing them support despite consistently leading in opinion polls.