Former Conservative MP and peer John Redwood argues that the state pension "triple lock" is affordable and financially secure, crediting Rachel Reeves's increase in employers' National Insurance contributions (NICs) for boosting the National Insurance Fund, which pays out state pensions. He contends that although he opposed the NICs rise as damaging to business and jobs, it has left the Fund with a substantial and growing surplus, meaning there is no immediate risk to pension payments or future triple lock increases.

According to the Government Actuary's latest report, the Fund holds a £101billion surplus, above the required minimum reserve, and this is forecast to grow to £164billion by 2031, with annual surpluses of around £15billion expected over the next four years. Redwood explains that NICs, unlike general taxation, are largely ring-fenced: about 24 per cent goes to the NHS, while the rest funds the National Insurance Fund on a pay-as-you-go basis, with current workers' contributions funding today's pensioners. He warns, however, that the government could still change legislation to draw down the growing surplus rather than preserve it for future contributors.