The Met Office says the UK is heading into a wetter and warmer-than-normal autumn, driven by a strengthening El Niño that is forecast to become one of the strongest such events on record. The change matters because it could bring stormier conditions and a greater flood risk, particularly from November onwards, while also offering some relief to areas currently suffering from drought, though officials caution that recovery from drought will still take a long time.

The forecast follows a record-breaking summer 2026, provisionally the hottest on record, with five widespread heatwaves and 40 days above 30C, which has left sea temperatures around the UK up to 5C above normal and is expected to keep autumn temperatures elevated. Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk stressed that a strong El Niño does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK, and while some forecasters warn of possible "weather whiplash" similar to 2025, it remains too early to say whether the coming winter will be especially cold or snowy, with only one of the last several strong El Niño years since 1900 bringing widespread disruptive snow.