Sir John Curtice, the UK's leading polling expert, has warned Andy Burnham that calling an early general election would be risky because Reform UK could still end up as the largest party in the House of Commons, despite recent turmoil within Farage's party. Although Labour has surged since Burnham became prime minister, Curtice said current polling suggests Labour would lose its majority, and one mega-poll even puts Reform ahead of Labour in seats, meaning an early vote could cost Burnham his premiership rather than secure it.

A YouGov poll this week put Reform and Labour level on 23 per cent, with the Conservatives on 20 per cent, though Reform has slipped from a nine-point lead a year ago and was overtaken by Labour last month for the first time since March 2025. Curtice explained that Labour's declining support is concentrated in seats it already holds, echoing the pattern that reduced the Conservatives to around 120 seats in 2024, while Reform's more evenly spread vote could let it win most seats even without a big lead. He suggested Burnham, who has "got three years" left in this parliament, would be gambling foolishly by risking that time for an early contest. A Reform spokesperson responded that Labour was "terrified" and would not call an election because "Reform would win".