Australia’s population growth will rely on migration as deaths surpass births
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Australia is heading towards a historic demographic shift where deaths will outnumber births by the 2060s for the first time, fundamentally changing how the nation grows. This marks a significant turning point that will reshape Australia's economic and social landscape, ending the era where natural increase has been the primary driver of population expansion and making net migration essential for future growth.
New Treasury projections forecast Australia's population to reach 39.3 million by 2065–66, growing at just 0.9 per cent annually—down from the 1.1 per cent previously expected. The fertility rate is projected to fall from 1.48 to 1.34 babies per woman, whilst the under-20 population will rise only 10.4 per cent and those aged 85 and older will triple. This ageing population will place substantial strain on public finances, with government spending rising to 27.7 per cent of GDP over the next four decades, with ageing alone driving one-third of additional health spending.
- Deaths to outnumber births by 2060s; migration becomes primary population driver.
- Population growth slows to 0.9% annually; fertility falls, under-20s grow just 10.4%.
- Ageing crisis: 85+ population triples; government spending rises to 27.7% of GDP.
New here? Start with this
Australia's population has grown through two sources: natural increase, where more people are born than die, and net migration. Natural increase has historically been Australia's main driver of population growth, though migration has always played a role.
New forecasts show that by the 2060s, deaths will outnumber births in Australia, ending the contribution of natural increase to population growth. Instead, population expansion will depend entirely on net migration, marking a fundamental shift in Australia's demographic patterns.
This change matters because an ageing population requires more healthcare, and government spending on health is projected to rise sharply. Australia will also need to rely more heavily on migration to maintain workforce numbers and skills, making immigration policy increasingly central to economic planning.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Australia's ageing population and declining natural growth present genuine fiscal and labour challenges that merit managed immigration responses. A shrinking workforce-to-retiree ratio will strain the tax base relative to pension and healthcare obligations, whilst specific skill gaps in healthcare, construction, and technology require external talent. Historically, skilled migration has driven Australian innovation and prosperity; slower population growth risks reduced economic dynamism, diminished labour force participation, and potentially compromised living standards if productivity gains alone cannot offset demographic headwinds. Managing this transition through selective, skills-based migration is preferable to allowing infrastructure and services to atrophy.
The case against
Slower population growth offers Australia a chance to address longstanding pressures on housing, infrastructure, and environment that decades of rapid expansion have exacerbated. A mature, ageing society need not be a burden if properly supported through adequate aged care investment and taxation policy; Japan and several Nordic nations demonstrate that high living standards are compatible with stable or declining populations. Reliance on immigration to solve demographic challenges may prove illusory, as migrants themselves age, and the focus on population quantity diverts attention from policies ensuring quality of life, environmental sustainability, and social cohesion. Productivity improvements and improved work practices can offset smaller workforce numbers without perpetual population growth.
Full account
Australia faces a pivotal demographic turning point by the 2060s, according to the government's seventh Intergenerational Report, when mortality rates will for the first time surpass birth rates. This transformation reflects declining fertility—projected to fall from the current 1.48 to 1.34 children per woman—coupled with an ageing population. Whilst many wealthy nations including Japan, Germany, South Korea and Italy have already crossed this threshold, it represents a historic milestone for Australia and signals the end of natural population growth as the country's primary driver of demographic change.
The slowdown carries profound economic implications. Annual population growth is forecast to average 0.9 per cent over the coming four decades, down sharply from a historical 1.4 per cent, reflecting both lower fertility and the exhaustion of natural increase. Per-capita gross domestic product expansion is projected at 1.2 per cent annually—a decline from the previous 1.5 per cent—producing what Treasury characterises as a 'new normal' of more modest economic advancement. Nonetheless, living standards are anticipated to continue improving, albeit at a diminished pace.
Treasury officials have pinned hopes for maintaining productivity on the adoption and deployment of artificial intelligence, framing it as pivotal to achieving their longer-term growth assumptions. Treasurer Jim Chalmers described the technology as 'the biggest economic transformation of our lifetime', whilst acknowledging that the government must navigate a careful path between shielding Australians from potential harms and avoiding regulatory strictures that might impede economic benefit. The projections tacitly assume that productivity, which has languished near zero in recent years, will recover to its historical average of 1.2 per cent—a recovery contingent on successful AI integration.
Migration emerges as an increasingly critical lever for population replenishment and economic renewal. Once deaths exceed births, net migration will become Australia's sole source of demographic growth. Migrants typically arrive younger—with a median age of 26 compared to 38 for Australia's resident population—and represent a source of supplementary workforce skills. The total population is nonetheless projected to expand to 39.3 million by the mid-2060s, albeit at a much slower rate than previously anticipated. Concurrently, the ageing cohort will place severe strain on public finances: federal spending is forecast to climb to 27.7 per cent of gross domestic product within four decades, with healthcare, aged care and disability support accounting for a substantial share. Treasury estimates that population ageing alone will drive one-third of all incremental health expenditure over this period. Treasurer Chalmers characterised longer lifespans and improved health outcomes as predominantly positive developments, reflecting the efficacy of Australia's universal healthcare system, despite the fiscal pressures they generate.
Where outlets differ
Source 1 emphasises artificial intelligence as central to addressing economic stagnation and frames it as the government's pivotal productivity lever; Source 2 makes no mention of AI at all, instead foregrounding migration's demographic and economic roles.
Source 1 concentrates on economic growth rates, per-capita GDP expansion, and the requirement for productivity recovery; Source 2 prioritises fiscal pressure, government spending trajectories, and healthcare system strain.
Source 1 presents demographic change as an economic challenge requiring productivity innovation; Source 2 treats it primarily as a fiscal and labour-market challenge amenable to migration policy.
Source 2 emphasises positive framing of population longevity and its alignment with healthcare quality; Source 1 frames longevity more neutrally within the context of economic headwinds.
Source 2 provides specific numerical projections (39.3 million population, fertility rate 1.48→1.34, youth growth only 10.4% versus earlier forecasts of 28%); Source 1 omits precise population targets and emphasises comparative cross-national context instead.
Source 2 underscores the revision between the 2023 and current intergenerational reports, showing a substantial downward adjustment in youth population forecasts; Source 1 does not reference prior forecasting revisions.
Coverage
- The Guardian — More Australians will be dying than being born in 40 years as major report predicts future of lower growth
- Daily Mail — Australia may rely solely on migration for population growth as births decline
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