Reform UK has suffered a significant reversal in the latest YouGov MRP polling, dropping from predicted first place to third in seat projections. If a general election were held today, Labour would secure 241 seats, the Conservatives 130 seats, and Reform UK only 123 seats, representing a stark deterioration from polling last year that suggested Reform would become parliament's largest party. This marks a dramatic decline for Nigel Farage's party and reshapes expectations for UK politics.

The poll data reveals why this matters strategically: whilst Labour would fall short of an overall majority, it could form a viable coalition with the Liberal Democrats and Green Party, whereas no combination of Reform and Conservative seats would achieve a majority in parliament. Labour's vote share stands at 23 per cent, with Reform and the Conservatives tied at 21 per cent; Reform's support has dropped to its lowest level since January 2025. Farage's personal favourability rating has also hit a record low of -45, identical to Keir Starmer's rating before his resignation as prime minister, indicating seriously diminished public support for the Reform leader.