Campaigners have accused energy firms of seeking to end the UK windfall tax early, claiming this could cost the exchequer £8.6 billion by 2030. The government plans to replace the existing energy profits levy with a new oil and gas revenue levy in 2030, but oil and gas companies are lobbying for the transition to happen sooner. Environmental and social justice groups argue this timing is particularly inappropriate given that energy prices have risen due to the Middle East crisis, leaving families struggling with energy costs.

Analysis by Global Witness shows that the replacement tax system would raise significantly less revenue than the current windfall tax under various oil price scenarios. At $100 per barrel, the new levy would collect £8.6 billion less by 2030; at $70 per barrel, it would raise no revenue compared with £4.6 billion from the current system. The industry body Offshore Energies UK claims that earlier introduction of the new scheme, combined with more relaxed licensing policies, could unlock 111 projects on the UK Continental Shelf, though campaigners dismiss these claims as unjustified tax breaks for profitable companies.