Megapoll projects Labour recovery as Reform’s surge fades
A More in Common megapoll suggests Labour’s electoral position has improved substantially, while Reform’s recent surge has weakened. The findings have revived speculation about a snap election at Labour’s conference, although Andy Burnham has rejected the idea and said a vote before 2029 is not being considered.
The poll projects Labour winning 250 seats, Reform 147 and the Conservatives 125, leaving Labour short of a majority but potentially able to govern with support from the Liberal Democrats and SNP. Nearly 16,000 adults were surveyed, and the research warns that tactical voting and narrow margins could significantly alter the result; it also concludes that calling an early election would remain a considerable risk for Labour.
- Labour’s projected support has recovered markedly.
- Reform’s projected gains have sharply receded.
- Burnham continues to rule out an early election.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Labour could argue that a recovering position and weakening Reform surge create a favourable opportunity to seek a clearer mandate before circumstances change. An election might convert improved support into more seats, reduce political uncertainty and allow the government to pursue its programme with greater legitimacy, even if the projected result suggests it would need parliamentary support.
The case against
Opponents could argue that the poll still projects Labour well short of a majority, making an early election a high-risk gamble rather than a secure route to stronger government. Tactical voting, narrow constituency margins and the possibility that Reform’s support could revive mean Labour might lose seats, weaken its governing position and distract from delivering on its existing mandate.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Sure you’re not thinking about a snap election, Andy? Another megapoll shows Labour recovering as Reform surge recedes”.