Democrats lead in midterm polls as Trump’s approval rating falls
Developed over time first seen 5 hours ago
Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37 per cent amid an unpopular war with Iran and economic difficulties, with Democrats predicting a "blue tsunami" that could sweep both the House and Senate on 3 November. Republicans fear losing seats in traditionally safe states like Texas, Kansas and South Carolina, though some indicators suggest the party may not be entirely doomed. The outcome matters significantly because a large Democratic victory would hand Speaker Hakeem Jeffries a stronger mandate and majority to govern.
The House appears likely to flip Democratic, with polls showing Democrats ahead by 9.6 points in generic ballot polling and a 93 per cent chance of controlling the chamber according to analyst Nate Silver. Democrats could gain up to 28 seats, bringing their total to 240, with independent voters now backing them 57 to 32 per cent and Latino voters shifting back to the Democratic party. The Senate race remains less certain, with Republicans currently holding 53 seats to Democrats' 47.
- Trump's approval rating plummets to 37 per cent amid economic difficulties
- Democrats predicted to gain up to 28 House seats with 93 per cent winning chance
- Senate control remains uncertain despite House prospects favouring Democrats
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The United States holds midterm elections on 3 November, when voters will elect members of the House and Senate. These elections, held two years into a president's term, are typically seen as a judgment on how the president is performing.
President Donald Trump approaches the election with a diminished approval rating, following an unpopular military conflict with Iran and economic difficulties in the country. A president's approval rating tends to affect whether his party gains or loses congressional seats.
The outcome of these elections will determine which party controls Congress and therefore shapes the legislative agenda for the next two years. This makes the midterms particularly significant for America's political direction.
Full account
Democrats enter the final four weeks before the 3 November midterm elections with a lead in national polling, while President Donald Trump faces weak approval ratings. The two supplied reports cite different measures: one puts his approval at 37% in an average of polls, while the other cites a Reuters/Ipsos survey showing 32%. Both point to dissatisfaction with the cost of living. The first also highlights the economic effects of the war with Iran and reports especially poor ratings for Trump’s handling of inflation.
The House of Representatives looks particularly difficult for Republicans to retain. Every one of its 435 seats is being contested, and a small shift could overturn their narrow majority. The first report says Democrats lead the average generic congressional ballot by 9.6 percentage points, up from 6.7 points a month earlier. It cites Nate Silver’s model as giving Democrats a 93% chance of taking the House and projecting a gain of 23 seats. Those figures describe a forecast, however, rather than a result: national voting intentions do not translate evenly into individual districts, and turnout still matters.
Control of the Senate is less certain. The first report describes Democratic hopes of winning Republican seats in states including Texas, Kansas and South Carolina, while cautioning against treating a large Democratic victory as inevitable. The second focuses on particular races and on candidates’ efforts to reach beyond their usual supporters. It cites a New York Times/Siena poll putting Democrat Mary Peltola ahead of Republican senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska, and notes independent Dan Osborn’s challenge to Republican senator Pete Ricketts in Nebraska. It also describes Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson’s appeal to Democrats in Iowa. Individual polls can indicate competitive contests without establishing how those states will vote.
Voters outside the parties’ core constituencies could prove decisive. The second report says the Reuters/Ipsos poll gives Democratic congressional candidates a 44% to 37% lead over Republicans, with independents favouring Democrats by 37% to 21%. The first cites a wider Democratic lead among independents in a Marist poll. Both reports raise questions about Republican support among Hispanic voters, a group that helped Trump in 2024; the second points to Republican congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar’s criticism of aspects of his immigration policy. Trump, meanwhile, is urging supporters to turn out as though he were standing himself. The polling gives Democrats reason for confidence, especially in the House, but the size of any gain and the balance of the Senate remain open.
Where outlets differ
The reports give different approval figures because the first uses a polling average of 37%, while the second cites a Reuters/Ipsos survey at 32%.
The first emphasises national trends, historical midterm results and a House forecast; the second concentrates on individual Senate races, independent voters and Republican candidates’ attempts to broaden their appeal.
The first links voter dissatisfaction prominently to the economy and the war with Iran; the second gives more attention to immigration policy and Hispanic voters. Their reported leads among independents come from different polls and should not be treated as directly comparable.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Can Trump hold back the ‘blue tsunami’? The three ways the midterms will go and the ‘hidden vote’ nobody is talking about”.