Polanski’s make-or-break moment: Polls close in Holborn by-election that could make him latest Green MP or trigger campaign to oust him as leader
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Polls have closed in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election, with Zack Polanski’s leadership facing renewed scrutiny as results are awaited. Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali is favoured to win, while a Green victory would make Polanski the party’s sixth MP; a defeat could prompt questions about his direction for the party.
Polanski said he believed the contest could be decided by a few hundred votes and cited a projection putting Labour on 40.4 per cent and the Greens on 35.6 per cent. The Greens won 10.4 per cent in the seat in 2024, when Keir Starmer secured 48.9 per cent; the constituency has returned Labour MPs since it was formed in 1983. The article links the Green Party’s recent decline in polling to controversies and the emergence of Andy Burnham as Labour leader.
- Polls have closed in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election.
- Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali is the favourite.
- The result could shape scrutiny of Polanski’s leadership.
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A by-election has been triggered in Holborn & St Pancras because the seat's previous holder, Keir Starmer, is no longer representing the constituency. A new MP must now be elected to represent the area.
Zack Polanski is standing for the Green Party in the by-election and is the Greens' leader. His main rival is Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali, who is widely considered the favourite to win the seat.
The seat has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983. In the 2024 election, Starmer won with 48.9 per cent of the vote whilst the Greens received 10.4 per cent, yet current polling suggests the Greens could now reach around 35.6 per cent. A victory for Polanski would give the Greens their sixth MP in Parliament, whilst a heavy defeat could prompt questions about his leadership of the party.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The Green Party's polling at 35.6 per cent represents a substantial 25-point improvement from their 2024 showing of 10.4 per cent, indicating genuine momentum and a competitive contest. Polanski's leadership should be evaluated on long-term direction and overall electoral performance rather than a single by-election; a strong showing would validate the strategy of pursuing winnable seats and demonstrate the party's growing appeal. Democratic competition requires parties to contest elections where they have genuine prospects, and the Greens are justified in pursuing this opportunity.
The case against
Labour remains ahead in the projection at 40.4 per cent, and the Green target still requires displacing the party that won the seat decisively in 2024 with 48.9 per cent. A heavy defeat would damage Polanski's authority as leader and raise substantive questions about whether the party deployed its limited resources optimally, particularly when those resources might have been more strategically concentrated elsewhere. The significant risk of a damaging outcome, combined with the statistically unlikely prospect of victory, makes this an imprudent gamble with the party's reputation and resources.