OpenAI projected to bring in $20bn less in revenue than expected
OpenAI has told investors it expects this year’s revenue to reach $50bn, about $20bn below the $70bn figure it had signalled last month. The gap has raised questions about the pace of demand for AI, a key concern for markets and investors backing the sector.
The figures were based on sales through September and reflect different ways of counting revenue: Anthropic includes sales through cloud partners such as Amazon and Google, while OpenAI does not. Anthropic reported a $65bn revenue forecast by the end of July. News of the discrepancy coincided with declines in US technology stocks, while OpenAI is in early talks to raise $30bn at a valuation of about $1.4tn.
- OpenAI’s latest forecast puts this year’s revenue at $50bn.
- That is $20bn below the figure signalled last month.
- The gap partly reflects different revenue-counting methods.
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OpenAI is a prominent artificial intelligence company that develops and sells AI services to businesses and consumers. The company has become a major player in the technology industry following the release of ChatGPT, its popular AI assistant.
OpenAI's business model relies on revenue from selling access to its AI tools and services. The company had previously indicated to investors it could generate around $70bn in annual revenue, but it recently revised that forecast down to $50bn—a $20bn reduction that suggests its growth may be slower than previously anticipated.
The revision matters because it raises questions about the broader demand for AI products and services. The technology sector has attracted enormous investment based on the assumption that artificial intelligence will transform business, so any sign that a leading company's growth is slower than expected can affect wider investor confidence and technology stock prices throughout the sector.
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The case for
The revision should be understood within normal business course correction, particularly given the different methodologies companies use to count revenue—OpenAI excludes cloud partner sales whilst Anthropic includes them. OpenAI still projects $50bn in annual revenue, an extraordinary figure for a company of its age, and investors continue backing it with substantial funding, suggesting underlying confidence in demand and the business model remains robust.
The case against
A $20bn downward revision—nearly 30 per cent below expectations—raises legitimate concerns about whether AI demand is growing as rapidly as markets have priced in. For an industry dependent on rapid scaling and strong unit economics, falling significantly short on revenue projections warrants scrutiny of whether current valuations reflect realistic market dynamics or speculative enthusiasm disconnected from actual demand.