The Badenoch Bounce goes on! Second poll puts resurgent Tories ahead of Reform and Kemi’s personal brand hits new high
The Conservatives moved ahead of Reform in a More in Common poll, the second survey this week to put them in second place. The results suggest Kemi Badenoch’s improved standing after the party conference may be translating into broader support, though Labour remains ahead.
The poll put the Tories on 24 per cent, three points ahead of Reform and closer to Labour. More in Common said Badenoch’s approval had risen among 2024 Conservative voters and Reform supporters, as well as among Labour and Liberal Democrat voters. She used her conference speech to set out tax-cutting plans, including exempting family homes from inheritance tax and giving couples a £1 million allowance; the polling picture would still point towards a hung Parliament.
- Tories poll at 24 per cent, three points ahead of Reform.
- Two polls this week suggest a post-conference boost.
- The results still point towards a possible hung Parliament.
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The Conservative Party, often called the Tories, is one of Britain’s main political parties. Kemi Badenoch became its leader after the party lost power in the 2024 general election, when Labour won and Reform UK also gained support.
Opinion polls estimate how people might vote if an election were held now, but they are snapshots rather than results. The Conservatives and Reform compete for some of the same voters, while support is also divided among Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties.
A party’s position in the polls can affect its influence and prospects at an election. If no party wins enough seats to govern alone, Parliament is described as “hung” and parties may need to work together to form a government.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The poll may indicate that Badenoch’s conference performance and clearer tax-cutting proposals are helping the Conservatives regain voters who want a credible alternative to Labour and Reform. Supporters could see the rise as evidence that her leadership is improving the party’s appeal across political groups, while offering a route to lower taxes and a stronger electoral position.
The case against
One poll is only a snapshot, and a second-place showing does not establish a sustained recovery or show that voters will support the Conservatives at an election. Critics could also question whether the proposed tax cuts are affordable or fair, and note that Labour remains ahead while the projected outcome still points to a hung Parliament.