Election tracker with ‘perfect record’ has dire news for Republicans with two weeks to the midterm elections
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New polling and election forecasts indicate that economic concerns could weaken Republican support ahead of the midterm elections, with Democrats now leading on measures of trust and financial wellbeing. Forecasts cited in the article give Democrats a stronger chance of gaining control of the House than the Senate.
Gallup found 44 per cent trust Democrats more than Republicans on the issue they consider most important, against 33 per cent for Republicans; the remaining 23 per cent chose neither, another party or had no opinion. Democrats also lead by 14 points on maintaining prosperity, while a YouGov poll found 39 per cent expect to be worse off financially under a Republican-controlled Congress and 23 per cent expect to be better off. Nate Silver’s model puts Democrats’ chances of winning the House at 94 per cent and the Senate at 75 per cent; Decision Desk HQ estimates 77 and 56 per cent, respectively.
- Democrats lead Republicans by 11 points on voters’ top issue.
- Economic concerns may weigh on Republican support.
- Forecasts favour Democrats, especially in the House.
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Midterm elections take place halfway through a US president’s four-year term. Voters choose every seat in the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate, so the results can change which party controls Congress.
Congress makes federal laws and approves government spending. If the president’s party loses control of one or both chambers, it may find it harder to pass its plans; the other party can also use its position to scrutinise the administration. Polls ask voters about issues such as the economy, while election models estimate how races may turn out based on available data.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The polling and forecasts suggest voters are increasingly concerned that Republican control would leave them worse off, giving Democrats a credible case that they are better placed to protect household finances and prosperity. Their leads on voters’ most important issues, alongside favourable House and Senate forecasts, support the argument that a change in congressional control would better reflect current concerns.
The case against
Polls and forecasts taken two weeks before an election are uncertain indicators, and voters may weigh issues other than economic confidence when choosing candidates. Republicans could argue that their policies offer a stronger route to prosperity, while warning that expectations about future finances do not establish what either party would deliver; the forecasts also leave a meaningful chance that Republicans retain one or both chambers.