NASA estimate puts lunar Starship refuelling at about 22 launches
NASA’s latest estimate is that about 22 Starship launches may be needed to fuel a lunar lander for a Moon mission, raising questions about whether the vehicle can support Artemis plans on schedule. The figure was cited by a member of NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel as a risk for the planned Artemis IV mission, while SpaceX’s Elon Musk disputed it.
Earlier estimates ranged from the high single digits to the high teens. The lander would need a propellant depot in low Earth orbit, supplied by tanker flights; uncertainty remains over fuel boil-off, transfer efficiency and Starship’s lift capacity. Even at a launch rate of twice weekly by the end of 2027, the article says filling the depot could take about three months. NASA is still aiming for a crewed Moon landing in 2028.
In short
- NASA safety panel member cited an estimate of 22 Starship launches.
- Elon Musk said the actual requirement would be closer to six to eight.
- Refuelling time could put pressure on NASA’s 2028 Moon landing goal.
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The case for
A high launch count could make the lunar schedule vulnerable: each tanker flight, orbital transfer and depot operation adds opportunities for delay or technical trouble, while propellant boil-off and lift capacity remain uncertain. NASA has reason to plan around conservative estimates so that crew safety and mission commitments do not depend on optimistic assumptions.
The case against
The 22-launch figure is an estimate amid unresolved questions about transfer efficiency, boil-off and how much Starship can carry, rather than a settled requirement. SpaceX could argue that better performance or operating experience may reduce the number of flights, and that repeated launches are a workable approach if the system reaches the planned cadence.
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Originally published by Ars Technica as “Latest estimate for Starship launches required to support a Moon landing? 22.”.