Trump won this reliably red state by double digits. Now a deadlocked race is bringing him back
Donald Trump is returning to Texas in the final week of the midterm campaign to support Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton, as his race against Democrat James Talarico has become unexpectedly close. The contest matters beyond Texas: it is one of around a dozen races that could determine whether Republicans retain their narrow Senate majority, and Democrats are seeking to end more than 30 years of statewide defeats.
A Fox News poll puts Paxton and Talarico level at 49% among likely voters, after Talarico led by two points the previous month. Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024, but the poll found greater election enthusiasm among Democrats and Talarico leading among Hispanic likely voters, 64% to 34%. Trump and Paxton are due in Lubbock on Tuesday, where Talarico is also scheduled to campaign.
In short
- Trump is returning to Texas to rally support for Ken Paxton.
- Paxton and James Talarico are tied at 49% in a new poll.
- The race could help decide control of the Senate.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Republicans can argue that Paxton’s candidacy offers Texas voters continuity with a state that has strongly backed Trump and conservative policies, while retaining the Senate majority could help advance that agenda. Trump’s visit may energise supporters and draw attention to a race where polls suggest the outcome is uncertain.
The case against
Democrats can argue that a close contest in a state Trump won comfortably shows voters are open to a change, and that Talarico gives them a chance to challenge Republican control after decades of statewide defeats. His reported strength among Hispanic voters and greater Democratic enthusiasm may signal a broader coalition seeking different representation and a change in Senate direction.
Explained simply
Texas is a large state where Republicans have won statewide elections for more than three decades. Donald Trump won it comfortably in 2024, but presidential results do not always predict how people will vote in a Senate race.
Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee for the US Senate, and James Talarico is the Democratic nominee. The Senate is one of the two chambers of Congress, where members help make federal laws and approve major appointments.
Texas is among several states where close Senate contests could affect which party controls the chamber. Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas in more than 30 years, while Republicans currently hold a narrow Senate majority.
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