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Spurned by MAGA attacks, Arab-American voters defect to Democrats
Developed over time first seen 2 weeks ago
A poll of likely Arab-American voters ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections found that 59% intended to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 26% for a Republican. The finding points to renewed Democratic support after many Arab-American voters turned away from the party in 2024 over the Biden administration’s backing of Israel during the war in Gaza. The online survey of 500 voters was conducted on 16–23 October and has a reported margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. It measures voting intentions, not election results.
Republican attacks on Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed have sharpened the debate. Donald Trump’s remarks about El-Sayed drew criticism even from Bishara Bahbah, who helped organise Trump’s Arab-American outreach in 2024 and said attacks based on religion were unacceptable. In the poll, 53% said rising anti-Arab and anti-Muslim hostility made them more likely to take part in politics. The shift should not be read as unconditional support for Democrats: 31% identified as independents, while 90% said Gaza would matter to their vote in the 2028 presidential election.
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In short
- A survey found Arab-American voters favouring Democrats for Congress by 59% to 26%.
- Republican rhetoric about a Michigan Senate candidate has drawn criticism from a former Trump organiser.
- Gaza remains a major test for Democrats seeking lasting support.
How this story developed
- 2 weeks ago A poll of likely Arab-American voters ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections found that 59% intended to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 26% for a Republican.
- The Hill Spurned by MAGA attacks, Arab-American voters defect to Democrats
- Arab American Institute The Arab American Vote in 2026 Midterms
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The reported shift towards Democratic candidates is understandable to voters who see Republican attacks on Abdul El-Sayed, including remarks criticised as targeting his religion, as evidence that their community is unwelcome. Rising anti-Arab and anti-Muslim hostility may make political participation and support for candidates seen as more inclusive feel especially important.
The case against
A move towards Democratic candidates need not mean Arab-American voters have resolved their concerns about the party: many turned away in 2024 over the Biden administration’s support for Israel during the Gaza war, and 90% say Gaza will matter to their 2028 vote. With 31% identifying as independents, voters may be expressing conditional or tactical preferences rather than renewed, settled loyalty to either party.
Explained simply
Arab-American voters are people in the United States with Arab heritage, including many Muslim and Christian communities. Michigan has a sizeable Arab-American population, and its elections can be closely contested, making voters there important to both major parties.
In 2024, some Arab-American voters moved away from Democrats because President Joe Biden’s administration supported Israel during the war in Gaza. Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat running for the US Senate in Michigan, has become a focus of Republican attacks, while Donald Trump’s comments about him have drawn criticism from some Arab-American figures who backed Trump in 2024.
The poll reports voting intentions among 500 likely Arab-American voters, rather than predicting the result of an election. Its findings also point to varied views: many respondents said hostility towards Arab and Muslim people could prompt greater political participation, while Gaza remained an important issue for many.
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Americas Elections Middle East Politics World