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Crowley holds 7-point lead over Tiffany in new Wisconsin gubernatorial poll
Developed over time first seen 2 weeks ago
A Marquette Law School poll released on 28 October 2026 put Democrat David Crowley seven percentage points ahead of Republican Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin’s governor’s race. Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, had 51% support among likely voters, against 44% for Tiffany, a US representative; 4% were undecided. In Marquette’s September survey, the pair stood at 49% and 46% respectively. The October poll surveyed 818 registered voters from 14 to 22 October, including 668 likely voters, with a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points for each candidate’s share among likely voters.
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In short
- Crowley led Tiffany 51% to 44% among likely voters.
- His lead grew from three points in September to seven in October.
- The poll was a snapshot of voter intentions before the election.
How this story developed
- 2 weeks ago A Marquette Law School poll released on 28 October 2026 put Democrat David Crowley seven percentage points ahead of Republican Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin’s governor’s race. Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, had 51% support among likely voters, against 44% for Tiffany, a US representative; 4% were undecided.
- The Hill Crowley holds 7-point lead over Tiffany in new Wisconsin gubernatorial poll
- Marquette Law School Poll Marquette Law School Poll finds Crowley at 51%, Tiffany 44% among likely voters in final survey before Nov. 3 election
- Wisconsin Public Radio David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany in final Marquette poll before Election Day
Full account
A Marquette Law School poll conducted from 14 to 22 October puts Democrat David Crowley seven percentage points ahead of Republican Tom Tiffany among Wisconsin voters most certain to vote in the 3 November gubernatorial election. Crowley was backed by 51% of likely voters, compared with 44% for Tiffany; 4% were undecided. The poll surveyed 818 registered voters, including 668 classified as likely voters.
Across all registered voters, Crowley led by three points, with 47% to Tiffany’s 44%; 9% were undecided. The distinction matters because support shifts as less certain voters are included: the poll found Tiffany doing better among people who said they were very likely, but not certain, to vote, and among those less inclined to turn out. Marquette said a larger-than-expected electorate would make the contest closer.
Compared with the late-September poll, Crowley’s lead among likely voters widened from three points to seven. His support rose from 49% to 51%, while Tiffany’s fell from 46% to 44%. Among registered voters, Crowley moved from 46% to 47% and Tiffany from 45% to 44%, expanding Crowley’s edge from one point to three. Marquette cautioned that both October leads fall within the margin of error for the gap between the candidates.
The reports point to independent voters as a key source of Crowley’s improvement, though they present different figures. Marquette’s release says that, among likely-voter independents, Crowley’s backing rose from 44% in September to 56% in October, while Tiffany’s increased from 18% to 26%; the undecided share fell from 38% to 18%. Wisconsin Public Radio reports a different breakdown for likely voters who are independent: 62% for Crowley and 22% for Tiffany. WPR also highlights independents’ more negative views of Tiffany than Crowley. The available reports do not explain the discrepancy in the vote figures.
Where outlets differ
From the full account, which is AI-written from the sources:
The Marquette release gives likely-voter independent support as 56% for Crowley and 26% for Tiffany; WPR gives 62% and 22%, respectively. The reports may be using different tabulations, but the supplied material does not clarify why.
WPR describes the seven-point lead as Crowley’s largest since Marquette began polling the matchup and focuses on independent voters and their candidate ratings. The Marquette release provides more detail on turnout likelihood, month-to-month changes and the poll’s uncertainty, including its warning that the leads are within the margin of error for the difference.
Explained simply
Wisconsin is a US state in the Midwest, where voters choose a governor to lead the state government. The governor oversees state agencies and can sign or veto laws passed by the state legislature.
David Crowley is a Democrat and Milwaukee County’s chief elected official. Tom Tiffany is a Republican member of the US House of Representatives; the two are competing to succeed Wisconsin’s current governor.
The race matters because its winner will shape state policy and work with the legislature on issues affecting Wisconsin residents. Polls estimate support at a particular point in time, and their margins of error mean the candidates’ actual levels of support may differ.
Coverage · 3 sources
- The HillCentreCrowley holds 7-point lead over Tiffany in new Wisconsin gubernatorial poll
- Marquette Law School PollMarquette Law School Poll finds Crowley at 51%, Tiffany 44% among likely voters in final survey before Nov. 3 election
- Wisconsin Public RadioDavid Crowley leads Tom Tiffany in final Marquette poll before Election Day
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