Alarming abuse reports, chained up activists and bitter rematches: The 10 House races that could flip Congress
The article identifies 10 closely contested House races that it says could determine control of Congress in the November midterms. Republicans hold a 218 to 212 majority, with four vacancies, and Democrats need to gain at least three seats; polling has favoured Democrats, while Republicans have raised more money.
The races described feature factors including missed votes, abuse allegations that a candidate denies, and rematches decided narrowly in 2024. In New Jersey’s 7th District, Tom Kean Jr missed more than 140 votes and faces Rebecca Bennett; in Ohio’s 7th, Max Miller faces Brian Poindexter, with Miller trailing by about eight points in recent polling. Pennsylvania’s 10th is a rematch between Scott Perry and Janelle Stelson, who polled level at 48 per cent each, while Virginia’s 2nd features Jen Kiggans against former representative Elaine Luria.
In short
- Democrats need to flip at least three seats to take the House.
- Polling favours Democrats, but Republicans have raised more money.
- Several close races feature scandals, absences or rematches.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Voters can reasonably see these close races as a chance to hold incumbents accountable for missed votes and to weigh challengers’ proposals against the current record. Where allegations are disputed and polling is tight, a competitive contest gives constituents a way to judge the evidence and decide which candidate they trust to represent them.
The case against
Others may argue that missed votes or disputed allegations should not outweigh a candidate’s broader record, policy positions and ability to represent the district. Close polling and fundraising differences do not establish who would govern better, and voters may reasonably prefer continuity or a particular party’s agenda over changing control of Congress.
Explained simply
The US House of Representatives is one of the two chambers of Congress, which makes federal laws and oversees the government. Its members are elected from districts across the country, and the party with the most seats can shape which bills come up for a vote.
Republicans currently have a narrow House majority, while Democrats need to win several seats to take control. The races in the story include contests between sitting representatives and challengers, as well as rematches between candidates who came close in 2024.
Control of the House matters because the majority party has more influence over legislation, investigations and the chamber’s leadership. Close contests can therefore affect how the US government operates, even though the House is only one part of Congress.
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