Business news and discussion on TalkFuse.
Midterm Elections: Americans Have Wagered $1.9 Billion on Prediction Markets on U.S. Races — With Democrats Favored to Win House and Senate
Developing story first seen 1 hour ago
The 2026 US midterm elections are under way, with nearly $1.9 billion wagered on election outcomes across prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket by 8pm ET on 2 November. Their prices favour Democrats to win the Senate and take control of the House, offering a measure of traders’ expectations as voters decide control of Congress.
Kalshi accounted for about $1.3 billion in trading and Polymarket about $600 million. Polymarket put Democrats’ chances at 78% for the Senate and 95% for the House; Kalshi gave them 78% and 93.9%. Both platforms ban insider trading, and Polymarket said it had investigated dozens of midterm-related trades for possible insider trading or manipulation. The total is below the more than $3.6 billion wagered on Polymarket alone during the 2024 presidential race; about $3.9 billion is expected to be spent on adverts across the House and Senate contests.
- Sources
- 2
- Outlets
- 2
- Left · Centre · Right
- 0 · 0 · 1
In short
- Nearly $1.9 billion has been traded on midterm outcomes.
- Both markets favour Democrats in the House and Senate.
- The total trails Polymarket’s 2024 presidential election wagers.
How this story developed
- 12 minutes ago Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket had recorded nearly $1.9 billion in trading on the 2026 US midterm elections by 8pm ET on 2 November, as voters prepared to choose control of Congress.
- 18 minutes ago The 2026 US midterm elections are under way, with nearly $1.9 billion wagered on election outcomes across prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket by 8pm ET on 2 November.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Supporters argue prediction markets aggregate many participants’ information and judgements, offering a timely signal of likely outcomes that can complement polls and campaign analysis. They also see election contracts as a form of voluntary trading, provided platforms enforce rules against insider trading and manipulation.
The case against
Critics argue that large betting volumes can make uncertain forecasts look more authoritative than they are, while market prices may reflect who can afford to trade as much as the wider electorate’s views. They also raise concerns that wagering on elections could encourage manipulation or undermine public trust, even when platforms prohibit misconduct.
Explained simply
The US midterm elections take place halfway through a president’s four-year term. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives and a portion of the Senate; together, these two chambers make up Congress, which passes federal laws and oversees government spending.
The main parties are the Democrats and Republicans. The balance of seats in each chamber affects how readily the president can advance their plans, as well as Congress’s work on laws and government oversight.
Prediction markets let users trade contracts tied to the outcome of an event, such as which party will control a chamber of Congress. Their prices are often presented as probabilities, reflecting traders’ expectations; the amount traded measures activity on those markets, rather than votes cast or campaign spending.
Coverage · 2 sources
Business Elections Government Markets Politics