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Trump’s gamble on Ken Paxton backfires as Democrat pulls off historic Texas Senate upset
James Talarico, a Democratic Texas state representative, has won the US Senate race, defeating Republican Ken Paxton in an upset that gives Democrats their first Texas Senate seat in nearly four decades. The result is a setback for President Donald Trump, who backed Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, despite concerns among Republicans that Cornyn would be a stronger candidate in a difficult midterm cycle.
Trump and national Republicans spent heavily to help Paxton, while Talarico presented himself as a moderate focused on representing Texans. The bitter campaign featured attacks over Paxton’s record and allegations of corruption, for which he was impeached by the Texas House and later acquitted by the state Senate, as well as Talarico’s views on transgender rights and religion. Cornyn congratulated Talarico and offered to help with his transition.
In short
- James Talarico wins Texas’s Senate race for the Democrats.
- Ken Paxton’s defeat undermines Trump’s high-profile endorsement.
- Democrats claim their first Texas Senate seat in nearly 40 years.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Talarico’s victory can be seen as a mandate for a candidate who presented himself as a moderate focused on representing Texans, and as evidence that voters wanted a change after a divisive campaign. His win also gives Democrats a chance to offer a different direction in a state where they have lacked a Senate seat for decades.
The case against
Paxton’s defeat does not by itself establish that voters rejected Trump’s backing or endorsed every element of Talarico’s platform; the result may reflect candidate-specific concerns, campaign dynamics or the wider midterm climate. Republicans who preferred Cornyn could argue that choosing Paxton over a candidate they considered more competitive weakened their chances and that the outcome says more about that strategic decision than about Texas as a whole.
Explained simply
Texas elects two US senators, who serve six-year terms and help make federal laws. The state has long favoured Republicans in Senate elections, while Democrats have struggled to win statewide office.
Ken Paxton is Texas’s Republican attorney general, and John Cornyn is a Republican senator seeking another term. Paxton was impeached by the Texas House over allegations of misconduct, then acquitted by the state Senate; impeachment is a formal accusation and does not itself remove an official from office.
James Talarico is a Democratic state representative. The contest drew national attention because President Donald Trump backed Paxton, while some Republicans argued Cornyn would be a stronger candidate. Texas’s Senate seats matter to the balance of power in Washington, where senators vote on laws and confirm senior officials.