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Even Anti-Trans Panic Couldn’t Save Republicans in Deep-Red Texas
James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in a landmark Texas Senate race, while Democrat Gina Hinojosa also beat incumbent Governor Greg Abbott. The results show that a Republican campaign centred heavily on attacks about transgender rights was not enough to keep Democrats from winning in a state without a Democratic senator since the 1990s.
Republicans spent $78 million on anti-trans advertisements in Texas, nearly half of the ad spending supporting Paxton, according to an analysis cited in the article. One $29 million advert, funded by a PAC primarily backed by Elon Musk, falsely claimed Talarico supported jailing parents who opposed gender-affirming surgery for minors; it had reportedly received 1.9 billion views by October. Voters and canvassers said these claims raised concerns, though many voters in Black districts that helped Talarico win barely mentioned him.
In short
- James Talarico won Texas’s Senate race against Ken Paxton.
- Anti-trans adverts drew attention but did not secure a Republican victory.
- Democrats also won the Texas governor’s race.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The results suggest that a campaign focused heavily on transgender rights can fail to persuade voters when its claims are misleading or when voters are more concerned with other issues. Republicans’ large spending on the adverts, alongside reports that many voters in key districts barely mentioned Talarico, supports the view that such messaging did not overcome the candidates’ broader appeal.
The case against
A single election does not show that campaigning on transgender rights had no effect: the adverts reportedly reached a very large audience, and some voters and canvassers said the claims raised concerns. Republicans could reasonably argue that the strategy influenced some voters but was outweighed by other factors, and that the results alone cannot establish which issues decided the races.
Explained simply
Texas has long been a strongly Republican state, and it has not sent a Democrat to the US Senate since the 1990s. The governor and senator are elected separately, so contests for both offices can reflect voters’ views on state leadership and national politics.
Ken Paxton is a Republican politician who has served as Texas attorney general, while Greg Abbott is the state’s incumbent governor. James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa are Democrats; Talarico has served in the Texas House of Representatives and Hinojosa in the state legislature.
Transgender rights, including medical care for young people, have become a prominent issue in US political campaigns. Political groups can spend heavily on adverts to influence voters, and claims in those adverts may be contested or misleading.